Nuclear deterrence, traditionally a transatlantic issue, is becoming a central focus for Europe in light of a more uncertain global security environment.

BRUSSELS, March 4 (Xinhua) -- As U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran continue, France and Germany announced the creation of a high-ranking nuclear steering group, signaling a shift in European security discussions beyond conventional defense.

Nuclear deterrence, traditionally a transatlantic issue, is becoming a central focus for Europe in light of a more uncertain global security environment.

The new body will provide a platform for dialogue on "the appropriate mix of conventional forces, missile defense, and French nuclear capabilities," according to a joint France-Germany declaration.

Speaking on Monday from the Ile Longue naval base, home to France's nuclear ballistic missile submarines, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized this shift, announcing plans to increase France's nuclear warheads and expand deterrence cooperation with European partners.

Macron highlighted the need for France to adapt to evolving security challenges, signaling a potential "European dimension" to France's deterrence strategy, though with national control over nuclear decision-making.

The announcement has sparked mixed but largely supportive reactions across Europe. Poland has shown interest in deeper involvement, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk seeking "maximum autonomy" in nuclear deterrence.

Belgium's Prime Minister Bart De Wever confirmed Belgium's participation, following positive responses from the Netherlands and Sweden, though formal arrangements are still in early stages. Sweden's growing security posture was evident when the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle made a stop in Malmo, operating Rafale jets capable of carrying nuclear missiles.

Discussions on expanding France's deterrent role in Europe began with the onset of the Ukraine crisis in 2022. Analysts, including Heloise Fayet of the French Institute of International Relations and Claudia Major of the German Marshall Fund, argue that uncertainty about U.S. security commitments under President Donald Trump has intensified concerns over the reliability of U.S. extended deterrence.

While the United States remains the cornerstone of NATO's nuclear posture, with around 100 nuclear warheads stationed across Europe, France, as the EU's only nuclear-armed state, possesses over 250 warheads. Meanwhile, the escalating fight between the U.S.-Israel joint forces and Iran has heightened fears of broader geopolitical instability and energy market volatility, with potential spillover effects for Europe.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned of the fallout from instability in the Middle East, stressing the need to strengthen resilience in energy, transport, and defense.

The growing tensions have already had practical effects: Britain's air base in Cyprus was reportedly targeted by drones, and France deployed aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Mediterranean. For many analysts, the significance of France's nuclear "umbrella" for Europe lies more in the political message than in the size of its arsenal. Europe's nuclear security has long relied on U.S. extended deterrence through NATO, but confidence in its permanence has weakened amid geopolitical turbulence.

German newspaper Die Welt noted that Macron's speech came at "a time of a reforming, some say crumbling, world order," as more Europeans doubt Washington's willingness to defend its allies. The current Middle East crisis has further exposed the divergence between the U.S. and Europe. The shifting power dynamics in the Middle East have given Macron a "perfect opening" to argue for Europe to raise its security and "take our destiny into our own hands."

Fayet and Major argue that under the circumstance, Europe is compelled to build its own "viable and genuine nuclear strategy." However, Macron's initiative does not envision a unified European nuclear force or the transfer of nuclear authority to the EU. Decisions on France's nuclear weapons remain solely at its discretion.

German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung pointed out that Macron cannot offer European partners a "guarantee" in the narrow sense, and his speech also sought to reassure domestic audiences.

The joint France-Germany declaration stressed that the initiative would complement, not replace, NATO's nuclear deterrence posture and existing nuclear-sharing arrangements. The long-term impact will depend on political consensus among European governments and the institutionalization of new cooperative mechanisms.■